The number of countries announcing pledges to achieve net-zero emissions over the coming decades continues to grow. But the pledges by governments to date – even if fully achieved – fall well short of what is required to bring global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050 and give the world an even chance of limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 °C. New Zealand is at a turning point, as it will release an emissions reduction plan by December 2021, which provides an opportunity to set ambitious policies to decarbonise all sectors. The country’s newly-established Climate Change Commission has reviewed the government’s climate policies, and published recommendations on a carbon budget.

New Zealand is one of the few countries to have a net zero emissions by 2050 goal enshrined in law, its Zero Carbon Act, but short-term policies cannot yet keep up with that ambition. New Zealand is increasingly relying on the mitigation potential of the land use and forestry sector to meet its target rather than focusing efforts on reducing emissions from high emitting sectors.

Although included in the Act, methane from agriculture and waste (over 40% of New Zealand’s emissions) is exempt from the net zero emissions goal, and has a separate target (at least 24-47% reduction below 2017 levels by 2050), not yet covered by significant policies. Overall, the CAT rates New Zealand’s current climate targets, policies and finance as “Highly insufficient”.

New Zealand submitted an updated NDC in April 2020. The update did not strengthen the country’s 2030 target. Both the present 2030 target – 30% from 2005 levels – and its architecture are deeply flawed. By setting its 30% reduction target against its 2005 emissions excluding land use changing forestry, but then allowing the crediting of its so-called Kyoto forest accounting in 2030 to meet this target, the result is a system that allows net emissions to continue to increase.

Under the present NDC construction, the country’s net emissions could be 4% above 2005 levels in 2030, and more than 44% above 1990 net emissions. Gross emissions in 2030 would only be about 18% below 2005 levels with this deeply flawed and illogical architecture.

The government plans to strengthen its NDC based on the Climate Change Commission’s final advice, which ambiguously recommended a target of “much more than 36%”. However, the Climate Change Commission’s advice does not comply with the Climate Change Response Act and is inconsistent with limiting warming to 1.5˚C, which would require New Zealand to set 2030 target of a reduction in gross emissions of at least 44%.

Aside from the need for a major increase in the target number itself, the government also needs to revisit its target architecture and drop the much discredited “gross net” approach to target setting. New Zealand one of only a few countries in the world using this “gross net” accounting system to calculate its 2030 target.